Al Baten 4-3 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al-Batin FC Stadium to face Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Baten (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Baten lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–4 with Al Taee winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 44% versus Al Taee 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 51% | Al Taee 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.49 xG and Al Taee 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.891 / defence 0.953 | Al Taee attack 1.081 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.219. Data: 55 Al Baten games / 55 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taee 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Baten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Baten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 50% | Al Taee 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Baten 1.49 / Al Taee 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.891 / def 0.953 | Al Taee attack 1.081 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al Taee xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Baten vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Al Baten 4 - 3 Al Taee.
Where is Al Baten vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al Taee part of?
Al Baten vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 43% chance of winning, Al Taee a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Baten and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taee?
Record (3 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 2W.
What form are Al Baten and Al Taee in?
Al Baten (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (1.08x) against Al Baten's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.89
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.75
1.25
Al Taee xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.25 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Baten come into this having played 55 games, going 12W 12D 31L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.29 PPG from 55 outings (21W 8D 26L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Baten's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.25 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 12W 12D 31L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 21W 8D 26L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al Taee away?
Al Baten's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
1
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2023, when Al Baten 4-3 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 44%, Al Taee 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Baten) and 52% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taee in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Baten's recent matches and 41% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Baten's recent games and 52% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Baten edge out Al Taee 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al Taee 4-3 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.49 xG and Al Taee 1.25 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Al Taee attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 32%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 51%, Al Taee 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Al Baten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.