Al Baten 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 21 October 2021 at 15:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Baten have collected 0.75 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's home record at Al-Batin FC Stadium: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games (1.86 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Fayha arrive in superior form — a 1.11 PPG advantage (1.86 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 29% versus Al-Fayha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 43% | Al-Fayha 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 0.89 xG and Al-Fayha 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.648 / defence 1.375 | Al-Fayha attack 0.922 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.174. Al Baten's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al Baten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Al Baten games / 7 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 19% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fayha 2.08. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al Baten 25% | Al-Fayha 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 19% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Baten 0.89 / Al-Fayha 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.648 / def 1.375 | Al-Fayha attack 0.922 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Fayha xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:55 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Al Baten 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 19% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fayha in?
Al Baten (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.92x) against Al Baten's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
19%
5.15
32%
3.09
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.38
1.49
Al-Fayha xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
22.81
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.49 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Baten's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Baten have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Baten's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Al Baten 0-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 25%, Al-Fayha 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Baten and 75% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Al Baten's games and 100% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Baten's matches and 75% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Baten and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Baten cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 0.89 xG and Al-Fayha 1.49 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.65 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 19% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 48%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al Baten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 43%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Al Baten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.