Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Damac's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG and Damac 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.886 / defence 1.151 | Damac attack 0.851 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.016. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 2 Damac games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 24% | Damac 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 24% | Damac 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 / Damac 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.886 / def 1.151 | Damac attack 0.851 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Damac xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kicked off at 18:45 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 55% chance of winning, Damac a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D. Damac (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.89) and Damac's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.25
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.75
0.99
Damac xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
26.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.99 for Damac, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Damac in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Damac have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Damac in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Damac specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Damac in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG and Damac 0.99 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.42, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 24% | Damac 21%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.