Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.08 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.769 / defence 0.750 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.219 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.505. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 55 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.08 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.769 / def 0.750 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.219 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.45
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.46
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.95
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.38 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 14W 6D 5L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 14W 4D 7L from 25 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.92 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 14W 6D 5L in their last 25 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.08 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%, Al-Ittihad FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 58% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 50%; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.08 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.77 / defence 0.75 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 43%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%, Al-Ittihad FC 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.92 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.