Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 0D 2L from 7 Pro League matches — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 0D 0L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.14 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% and Al-Ettifaq 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.142 / defence 0.930 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.452. Data: 7 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 37 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Ettifaq 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 / Al-Ettifaq 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.142 / def 0.930 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.14) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.04
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.87
1.33
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.33 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 5W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 2.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.14 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% BTTS, Al-Ettifaq 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 33% for Al-Ettifaq.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ahli Jeddah's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 71%, Al-Ettifaq 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 2.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.