Abha 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Abha welcome Al Taee to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 March 2022 at 12:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taee — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Abha) versus 1.60 (Al Taee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Abha, 0 for Al Taee and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Abha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al Taee trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 59% versus Al Taee 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 50% | Al Taee 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.39 xG and Al Taee 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.896 / defence 1.192 | Al Taee attack 0.614 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.222. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Abha games / 22 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 48% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 23%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taee 4.35. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al Taee 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 12:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 48% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Abha 1.39 / Al Taee 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.896 / def 1.192 | Al Taee attack 0.614 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Abha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Taee xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Taee kick off?
Abha vs Al Taee kicked off at 12:15 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Abha 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Abha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Taee part of?
Abha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 48% chance of winning, Al Taee a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Abha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Abha and Al Taee in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Taee (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.90) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.42
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Abha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Al Taee xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
17.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Abha and 0.89 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Abha have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 8W 4D 10L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 8W 2D 12L from 22 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.27 PPG, Al Taee on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 8W 4D 10L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 8W 2D 12L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Taee away?
Abha's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.82 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Abha
0
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 4, Al Taee have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Abha 2-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Taee?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 64%, Al Taee 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Abha) and 36% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Abha's recent matches and 18% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Abha's recent games and 36% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Taee tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Taee 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.39 xG and Al Taee 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Al Taee attack 0.61 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 48% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 23%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 50%, Al Taee 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.27 PPG, Al Taee 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.