Abha 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Abha welcome Al Taawon to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Thursday 15 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Abha stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.60 conceded. However, 3.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Abha have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Taawon — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form points away from home here. Al Taawon's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Abha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Abha, 2 for Al Taawon and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Abha 0–1 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Abha in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 59% and Al Taawon 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 69% | Al Taawon 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Abha surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Al Taawon have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.11 xG and Al Taawon 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.899 / defence 1.277 | Al Taawon attack 1.089 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.414. Abha's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Abha's last 49 games and Al Taawon's last 49.

Result probabilities: Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 57%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.78 | Draw 4.52 | Al Taawon 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 50% (last 10 away games).

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