Abha 0-6 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 44%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 30 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Abha (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 6W 0D 4L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.80 PPG clear of Abha in recent Pro League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Abha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Abha 1W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Abha — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 64% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 71% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.001 / defence 1.087 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.078 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.432. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Abha games / 14 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 44% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 44% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Abha 1.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.001 / def 1.087 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.078 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Abha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Abha 0 - 6 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Abha's attack rating (1.00) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.08x) against Abha's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.35
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Abha xG
Total xG
3.62
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
5%
21.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Abha and 1.68 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha's recent record stands at 4W 1D 9L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 3L across 14 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Abha have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Abha's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-6 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Abha, 83% for Al-Ahli Jeddah — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Abha and 83% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 83% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Abha's matches and 83% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Abha 0-6 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Abha fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.68 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 44% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 71%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.