Zenit 3-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Zenit welcome Akhmat to Gazprom Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zenit have posted 7W 1D 2L at Gazprom Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Zenit hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Akhmat, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Zenit winning.
The historical record gives Zenit a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 48% versus Akhmat 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 50% | Akhmat 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.50 xG and Akhmat 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.137 / defence 0.917 | Akhmat attack 0.672 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.310. Data: 40 Zenit games / 40 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 51% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 17%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Akhmat 5.88. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Zenit 60% | Akhmat 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 51% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Zenit 1.50 / Akhmat 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.137 / def 0.917 | Akhmat attack 0.672 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Zenit (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Akhmat xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 3 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 51% chance of winning, Akhmat a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Record (9 meetings): Zenit 6W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 2W.
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in?
Zenit (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.14) and Akhmat's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.14
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.31
0.81
Akhmat xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
25.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Zenit and 0.81 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 27W 8D 5L from 40 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 14L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 15W 2D 2L from 19 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 1W 10D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 games (2.22 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 15D 14L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.47 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Akhmat in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Akhmat runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Zenit have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 53%, Akhmat 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Zenit) and 32% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Akhmat in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Zenit's games and 58% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Zenit's recent games and 32% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Akhmat tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Akhmat 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 3-2 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.50 xG and Akhmat 0.81 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akhmat outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Akhmat attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 51% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 17%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 50%, Akhmat 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.