Spartak Moscow 0-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Spartak Moscow (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Spartak Moscow face Ural.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow and Ural meet at Lukoil Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spartak Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lukoil Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Lukoil Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ural (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ural have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Spartak Moscow's favour (1.50 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 3W, Ural 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Ural winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Spartak Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 58% versus Ural 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 56% | Ural 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG and Ural 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.005 / defence 1.030 | Ural attack 0.814 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.051. Data: 50 Spartak Moscow games / 50 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 32% | Ural 21%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Ural 4.76. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 40% | Ural 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 32% | Ural 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.41 / Ural 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.005 / def 1.030 | Ural attack 0.814 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ural xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Ural kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Ural kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Ural?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 0 Ural.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Ural part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Ural is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 47% chance of winning, Ural a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Ural?
Record (5 meetings): Spartak Moscow 3W | Draws 1 | Ural 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Ural in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Ural (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.00) and Ural's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.81x) against Spartak Moscow's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.11
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.29
0.88
Ural xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.88 for Ural, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 24W 13D 13L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural's form line: 15W 10D 25L from 50 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (15W 7D 3L).
On the road, Ural have gone 6W 6D 13L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.04 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Ural in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Ural have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Ural away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.08 PPG; Ural away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spartak Moscow have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ural — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spartak Moscow
2
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Ural?
From 6 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 3, Ural have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Spartak Moscow 0-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Ural?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 52%, Ural 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spartak Moscow) and 48% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ural in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 36% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 48% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Ural tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ural in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spartak Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Spartak Moscow and Ural drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG and Ural 0.88 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ural landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Ural attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 32% | Ural 21%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 56%, Ural 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.