Rubin 1-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rubin host Ural at Ak Bars Arena in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 29 April 2024 at 14:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Rubin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rubin at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Ural have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Ural have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Rubin have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rubin, 1 for Ural and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Rubin 1–0 Ural — a Rubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rubin in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ural in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 36% versus Ural 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 36% | Ural 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.99 xG and Ural 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.741 / defence 0.998 | Ural attack 0.783 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.258. Rubin's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Ural's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Rubin's last 25 games and Ural's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rubin 35% | Draw 31% | Ural 34%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.89 | Draw 3.22 | Ural 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rubin 40% (last 10 home games) | Ural 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 14:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 35% | Draw 31% | Ural 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Rubin 0.99 / Ural 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.741 / def 0.998 | Ural attack 0.783 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Rubin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ural xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs Ural FAQs
What time does Rubin vs Ural kick off?
Rubin vs Ural kicked off at 14:15 UK time on Monday 29 April 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Ural?
Rubin 1 - 1 Ural.
Where is Rubin vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Ural part of?
Rubin vs Ural is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 35% chance of winning, Ural a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rubin and Ural will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Rubin vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.74x the league average against Ural's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 25 games and Ural's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.22
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Rubin xG
Total xG
1.97
0.98
Ural xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs Ural Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Rubin and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Rubin and 0.98 for Ural, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rubin's recent record stands at 10W 6D 9L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 4W 4D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ural's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across their last 12 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rubin are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.96 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Ural
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs Ural (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Rubin vs Ural Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and Ural in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Ural have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Ural away?
Rubin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.33 PPG; Ural away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rubin or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ural in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2021, when Rubin won Rubin 4-0 Ural.
Rubin's record when hosting Ural specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rubin
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs Ural H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Ural?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 2, Ural have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rubin and Ural last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2024: Rubin 1-1 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Ural?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ural see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, Ural 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rubin) and 42% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Ural in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs Ural Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and Ural matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 33% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rubin and Ural matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rubin's recent games and 42% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Ural matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Rubin's recent matches and 50% of Ural's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin and Ural share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin and Ural finished level at 1-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.99 xG and Ural 0.98 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Ural attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 35% | Draw 31% | Ural 34%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 36%, Ural 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ural's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.