Krylia Sovetov 0-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 51%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Friday 8 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Current Form

Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

CSKA Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.50 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov over their recent games (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 70% of CSKA Moscow's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have the stronger record — 3 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 2–2 CSKA Moscow — a draw.

CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 61% and CSKA Moscow 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 59% | CSKA Moscow 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Krylia Sovetov surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.79 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.322 / defence 1.116 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.058 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.920. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack rating of 1.322 — their 1.79 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 49 games and CSKA Moscow's last 49.

Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 51% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.97 | Draw 3.43 | CSKA Moscow 5.01. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 70% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights