FC Krasnodar 0-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Zenit travel to Stadion FK Krasnodar to take on FC Krasnodar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion FK Krasnodar, FC Krasnodar have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zenit are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Krasnodar, 2 for Zenit and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Zenit winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Krasnodar trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zenit trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 57% versus Zenit 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 52% | Zenit 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 0.96 xG and Zenit 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.994 / defence 1.115 | Zenit attack 1.223 / defence 0.563. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.264. Zenit's defence strength of 0.563 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 FC Krasnodar games / 44 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 19% | Draw 27% | Zenit 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Zenit 1.85. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 60% | Zenit 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 19% | Draw 27% | Zenit 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Krasnodar 0.96 / Zenit 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.994 / def 1.115 | Zenit attack 1.223 / def 0.563 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Zenit (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Zenit xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 1 Zenit.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 19% chance of winning, Zenit a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Record (2 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 2W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Zenit (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (0.99) and Zenit's defence rating (0.56), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
19%
5.18
27%
3.68
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.69
1.72
Zenit xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
29.04
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.72 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 44 games, going 21W 11D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.30 PPG from 44 outings (30W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 12W 4D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.82 points per game from 22 outings (10W 10D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.48 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 21W 11D 12L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while Zenit have gone 30W 11D 3L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Zenit away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.82 PPG; Zenit away: 1.82 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zenit in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Zenit won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 54%, Zenit 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Krasnodar) and 36% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zenit in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Krasnodar's games and 59% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 36% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Zenit tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Zenit in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Krasnodar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 0-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 0.96 xG and Zenit 1.72 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Zenit attack 1.22 / defence 0.56, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 19% | Draw 27% | Zenit 54%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 52%, Zenit 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.