FC Krasnodar 1-3 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Zenit travel to Stadion FK Krasnodar to take on FC Krasnodar. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion FK Krasnodar, FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Krasnodar 1.80 PPG, Zenit 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Krasnodar, 1 for Zenit and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Zenit winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Krasnodar trading profile (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Zenit trading profile (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 50% and Zenit 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 46% | Zenit 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 0.79 xG and Zenit 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.857 / defence 1.032 | Zenit attack 0.845 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.168. Data: 24 FC Krasnodar games / 25 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 27% | Draw 34% | Zenit 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Zenit 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Krasnodar 40% | Zenit 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 27% | Draw 34% | Zenit 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Krasnodar 0.79 / Zenit 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.857 / def 1.032 | Zenit attack 0.845 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Zenit (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zenit xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 3 Zenit.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 27% chance of winning, Zenit a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Zenit (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (0.86) and Zenit's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
27%
3.77
34%
2.92
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
1.80
1.02
Zenit xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.02 for Zenit, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 6D 7L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.17 PPG from 24 outings (15W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (3W 6D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.29 scored and 0.96 conceded. Zenit's attacking output running into FC Krasnodar's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Zenit have gone 15W 7D 2L in their last 24 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Zenit away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.70 PPG; Zenit away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Zenit won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 40%, Zenit 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for FC Krasnodar and 20% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Zenit in 40%; FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 60% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 20% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Zenit tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zenit in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 1-3 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 0.79 xG and Zenit 1.02 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Zenit attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 27% | Draw 34% | Zenit 39%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 46%, Zenit 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.62. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.