Khimki 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rubin at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host Rubin at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Rubin have recorded 3W 1D 0L from 4 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Rubin's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Khimki's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Khimki trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Rubin trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 50% versus Rubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 50% | Rubin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.91 xG and Rubin 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.922 / defence 1.246 | Rubin attack 1.046 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.345. Data: 4 Khimki games / 4 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | Rubin 57%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Rubin 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Rubin (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rubin as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 50% | Rubin 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | Rubin 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Khimki 0.91 / Rubin 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.922 / def 1.246 | Rubin attack 1.046 / def 1.001 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Rubin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Rubin xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Rubin kick off?
Khimki vs Rubin kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Rubin?
Khimki 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Khimki vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Rubin part of?
Khimki vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 19% chance of winning, Rubin a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Khimki and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Rubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Rubin in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-D-L. Rubin (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khimki's attack rating (0.92) and Rubin's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
19%
5.17
23%
4.27
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.66
1.75
Rubin xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
29.80
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Khimki and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Khimki and 1.75 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Rubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khimki's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khimki heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
Rubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Rubin in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Rubin have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Khimki or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rubin in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and Rubin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khimki go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Khimki's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Khimki
1
Draws
0
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Rubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Khimki have won 3, Rubin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Khimki 3-2 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Rubin?
Khimki have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 50%, Rubin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khimki) and 50% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khimki's recent matches and 50% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khimki's recent games and 50% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Rubin tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rubin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 5, as Khimki and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.91 xG and Rubin 1.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against Rubin attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | Rubin 57%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, Rubin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.