Khimki 0-0 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sochi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs FC Sochi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khimki and FC Sochi meet at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khimki have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Arena Khimki this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sochi's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Sochi are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Khimki have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Sochi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Khimki 0W, FC Sochi 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with FC Sochi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Khimki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Sochi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 55% versus FC Sochi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 55% | FC Sochi 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.89 xG and FC Sochi 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.810 / defence 1.305 | FC Sochi attack 0.806 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.200. Data: 20 Khimki games / 20 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 26% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 45%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | FC Sochi 2.22. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sochi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Khimki 60% | FC Sochi 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 26% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Khimki 0.89 / FC Sochi 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.810 / def 1.305 | FC Sochi attack 0.806 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Sochi xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs FC Sochi kick off?
Khimki vs FC Sochi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs FC Sochi?
Khimki 0 - 0 FC Sochi.
Where is Khimki vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs FC Sochi part of?
Khimki vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 26% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khimki and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Sochi?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 0 | FC Sochi 1W.
What form are Khimki and FC Sochi in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Khimki's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Sochi's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — FC Sochi's attack (0.81x) against Khimki's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
26%
3.91
30%
3.34
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.15
1.26
FC Sochi xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Khimki and 1.26 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 2W 8D 10L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi's form line: 12W 1D 7L from 20 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Sochi are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Khimki have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L).
On the road, FC Sochi have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khimki are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.65 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 8D 10L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 12W 1D 7L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or FC Sochi away?
FC Sochi's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.90 PPG; FC Sochi away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Khimki or FC Sochi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Sochi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Sochi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sochi won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Sochi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Khimki
1
Draws
3
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Sochi?
From 4 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, FC Sochi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Khimki 0-2 FC Sochi.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and FC Sochi?
FC Sochi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 60%, FC Sochi 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Khimki) and 60% (FC Sochi).
On the defensive side: Khimki have failed to score in 30% of games; FC Sochi in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play FC Sochi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Khimki's games and 60% of FC Sochi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Khimki's recent games and 60% of FC Sochi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and FC Sochi tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khimki's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and FC Sochi finished level at 0-0 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.89 xG and FC Sochi 1.26 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khimki fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Sochi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against FC Sochi attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 26% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 45%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 55%, FC Sochi 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Sochi's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.