Khimki 0-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Rostov (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khimki face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host FC Rostov at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Arena Khimki this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Khimki. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Khimki are significantly better at Arena Khimki than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Rostov have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Rostov — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Khimki have won 0, FC Rostov 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with FC Rostov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khimki 55% and FC Rostov 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 57% | FC Rostov 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.31 xG and FC Rostov 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.805 / defence 0.994 | FC Rostov attack 1.118 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.275. Data: 49 Khimki games / 49 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 35% | Draw 26% | FC Rostov 40%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | FC Rostov 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 30% | FC Rostov 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 35% | Draw 26% | FC Rostov 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Khimki 1.31 / FC Rostov 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.805 / def 0.994 | FC Rostov attack 1.118 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Rostov xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs FC Rostov kick off?
Khimki vs FC Rostov kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Khimki 0 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Khimki vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs FC Rostov part of?
Khimki vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 35% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khimki and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Rostov?
Record (3 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 1 | FC Rostov 2W.
What form are Khimki and FC Rostov in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khimki's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.90
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
FC Rostov xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Khimki and 1.42 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 10W 15D 24L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov's form line: 21W 13D 15L from 49 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khimki have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (7W 10D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Khimki are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 8W 9D 6L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.67 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 80%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 10W 15D 24L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 21W 13D 15L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.35 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and FC Rostov runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khimki's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Khimki
2
Draws
4
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Rostov?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, FC Rostov have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Khimki 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khimki at 48%, FC Rostov at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Khimki) and 61% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khimki's games and 83% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Khimki's recent games and 61% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Khimki 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Khimki 0-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.31 xG and FC Rostov 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khimki fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against FC Rostov attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 35% | Draw 26% | FC Rostov 40%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 57%, FC Rostov 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Rostov's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.