Khimki 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khimki and Dynamo meet at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Khimki (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo are 0.50 PPG clear of Khimki in recent Premier League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Dynamo, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–6 with Dynamo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Khimki half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dynamo half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 53% versus Dynamo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 58% | Dynamo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.55 xG and Dynamo 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.901 / defence 1.301 | Dynamo attack 1.058 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.441. Data: 55 Khimki games / 55 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 29% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 47%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo 2.13. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 30% | Dynamo 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 29% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Khimki 1.55 / Dynamo 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.901 / def 1.301 | Dynamo attack 1.058 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Dynamo xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Dynamo kick off?
Khimki vs Dynamo kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Dynamo?
Khimki 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Khimki vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Dynamo part of?
Khimki vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 29% chance of winning, Dynamo a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Khimki and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Dynamo?
Record (3 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo 3W.
What form are Khimki and Dynamo in?
Khimki (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Dynamo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.90x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (1.06x) against Khimki's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
29%
3.42
24%
4.20
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Khimki xG
Total xG
3.53
1.99
Dynamo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
14%
7.28
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
4%
24.93
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Khimki and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Khimki and 1.99 for Dynamo, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khimki come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 16D 28L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.67 PPG from 55 outings (27W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Khimki's home form reads 8W 11D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Khimki are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khimki are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 11W 16D 28L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 27W 11D 17L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.30 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dynamo have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo won 6-1 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Khimki
0
Draws
6
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Dynamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, Dynamo have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Dynamo 4-1 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 48%, Dynamo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Khimki) and 67% (Dynamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khimki's games and 67% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Khimki's matches and 67% of Dynamo's.
Do Khimki and Dynamo tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Khimki 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Khimki 0-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.55 xG and Dynamo 1.99 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khimki fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dynamo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Dynamo attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 29% | Draw 24% | Dynamo 47%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 58%, Dynamo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.