Khimki 1-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Akhmat travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khimki have posted 2W 4D 3L at Arena Khimki — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Akhmat have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.10 PPG versus Akhmat's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Khimki have won 1, Akhmat 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khimki trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Akhmat trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 55% versus Akhmat 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 50% | Akhmat 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.29 xG and Akhmat 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.929 / defence 1.090 | Akhmat attack 0.926 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.179. Data: 20 Khimki games / 50 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 35% | Draw 34% | Akhmat 31%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Akhmat 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 56% | Akhmat 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 35% | Draw 34% | Akhmat 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Khimki 1.29 / Akhmat 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.929 / def 1.090 | Akhmat attack 0.926 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Khimki (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Akhmat xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Akhmat kick off?
Khimki vs Akhmat kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Akhmat?
Khimki 1 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Khimki vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Akhmat part of?
Khimki vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 35% chance of winning, Akhmat a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khimki and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 3W.
What form are Khimki and Akhmat in?
Khimki (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Akhmat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.93x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.95
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Akhmat xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Khimki and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Khimki and 1.19 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khimki's recent record stands at 4W 7D 9L from 20 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 9L across 20 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 0.95 PPG, Akhmat on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khimki have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 0.95 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Akhmat away?
Khimki's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.11 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
2
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Akhmat?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Akhmat have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 56%, Akhmat 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Khimki) and 44% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Akhmat in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Khimki's recent matches and 44% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khimki's recent games and 44% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Akhmat tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki and Akhmat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Akhmat finished level at 1-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.29 xG and Akhmat 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 35% | Draw 34% | Akhmat 31%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 0.95 PPG, Akhmat 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.