Fakel 0-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fakel at 49%, yet in-form Ural provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fakel vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Ural at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fakel have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.75 conceded. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ural's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fakel's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fakel register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Ural in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Fakel in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Ural in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fakel 100% and Ural 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fakel 100% | Ural 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.92 xG and Ural 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 1.075 / defence 1.302 | Ural attack 0.823 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.266. Data: 4 Fakel games / 34 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 49% | Draw 25% | Ural 26%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Ural 3.85. Fakel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fakel at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ural (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fakel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 100% | Ural 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 49% | Draw 25% | Ural 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Fakel 1.92 / Ural 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 1.075 / def 1.302 | Ural attack 0.823 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Fakel (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ural xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Ural kick off?
Fakel vs Ural kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Ural?
Fakel 0 - 0 Ural.
Where is Fakel vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Ural part of?
Fakel vs Ural is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 49% chance of winning, Ural a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fakel and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fakel and Ural in?
Fakel (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.75 | L5 D-L-D-L. Ural (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fakel's attack rating (1.07) and Ural's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.99
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Fakel xG
Total xG
3.27
1.36
Ural xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Fakel and 1.36 for Ural, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ural sit at 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fakel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ural in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Early Season
Ural
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Ural in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Ural have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fakel's record when hosting Ural specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fakel
3
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Ural?
From 4 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Ural have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Fakel 0-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 100%, Ural 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fakel and 50% for Ural. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ural in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Ural?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fakel's games and 25% of Ural's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fakel's matches and 50% of Ural's.
Do Fakel and Ural tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ural in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 5, as Fakel and Ural drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.92 xG and Ural 1.36 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ural landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 1.07 / defence 1.30 against Ural attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 49% | Draw 25% | Ural 26%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 100%, Ural 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fakel arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ural conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.