Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov plays host to Fakel versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fakel's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fakel are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
FC Krasnodar's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2022, ended Fakel 3–3 FC Krasnodar — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 54% versus FC Krasnodar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 40% | FC Krasnodar 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fakel surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while FC Krasnodar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Krasnodar surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Fakel recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.38 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.964 / defence 1.127 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.360 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.292. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack rating of 1.360, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Fakel's last 35 games and FC Krasnodar's last 35.
Result probabilities: Fakel 25% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 49%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 4.07 | Draw 3.84 | FC Krasnodar 2.02. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fakel's last 10 home games and FC Krasnodar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fakel 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 25% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Fakel 1.38 / FC Krasnodar 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.964 / def 1.127 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.360 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.98
FC Krasnodar xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fakel vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Fakel 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 25% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fakel and FC Krasnodar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fakel vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.36x) against Fakel's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from Fakel's last 35 games and FC Krasnodar's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
25%
4.07
26%
3.84
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fakel xG
Total xG
3.36
1.98
FC Krasnodar xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
14%
7.25
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
3%
29.54
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fakel vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Fakel and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fakel and 1.98 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fakel come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 11D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (17W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fakel's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across their last 17 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 17 away games (7W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fakel are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar in 63%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
Fakel (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fakel
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Fakel vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are Fakel and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 17W 10D 8L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Fakel or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won FC Krasnodar 5-0 Fakel on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Fakel
4
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Fakel vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Fakel have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: FC Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 59%, FC Krasnodar 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fakel) and 71% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fakel vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fakel and FC Krasnodar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fakel's games and 65% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fakel and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Fakel's matches and 71% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Fakel and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Fakel's recent matches and 76% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 6, as Fakel and FC Krasnodar drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.38 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.98 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.36 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 25% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 49%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 40%, FC Krasnodar 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.