Dinamo Makhachkala 1-3 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Anzhi Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Dinamo Makhachkala's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
It is worth noting that CSKA Moscow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 45% versus CSKA Moscow 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 34% | CSKA Moscow 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.11 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.912 / defence 0.804 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.967 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.266. Data: 38 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 38 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | CSKA Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dinamo Makhachkala are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Dinamo Makhachkala 40% | CSKA Moscow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Sep 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.11 / CSKA Moscow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.912 / def 0.804 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.967 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 17 September 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala 1 - 3 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 36% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
Record (4 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 4W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.91x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.97x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.09
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 0.98 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 10D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (19W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.44 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
5
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 1-3 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 33%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 44% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 39% of games; CSKA Moscow in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-3 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.11 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 34%, CSKA Moscow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.