Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 38%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Anzhi Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dinamo Makhachkala lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 41% versus CSKA Moscow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | CSKA Moscow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.08 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.811 / defence 0.758 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.963 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.146. Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 44 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 36% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | CSKA Moscow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dinamo Makhachkala are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Dinamo Makhachkala 40% | CSKA Moscow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 36% | CSKA Moscow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.08 / CSKA Moscow 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.811 / def 0.758 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.963 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
0.84
CSKA Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 38% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
Record (2 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.81x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.96x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
38%
2.60
36%
2.80
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.91
0.84
CSKA Moscow xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 0.84 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 44 games, going 9W 16D 19L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 2.02 PPG from 44 outings (26W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.90 points per game from 21 outings (11W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.64 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 9W 16D 19L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 11D 7L in their last 44 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.38 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
From 4 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 48%, CSKA Moscow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 48% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 38%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 52% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.08 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.84 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 0.76 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 36% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 23%, CSKA Moscow 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.