CSKA Moscow 0-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 1D 3L across 9 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 0D 1L at VEB Arena — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 3L from 9 games (1.78 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.78 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.78 for FC Krasnodar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 44% versus FC Krasnodar 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 44% | FC Krasnodar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.16 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.959 / defence 0.947 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.040 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.181. Data: 9 CSKA Moscow games / 9 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 36%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | FC Krasnodar 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 25% | FC Krasnodar 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.16 / FC Krasnodar 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.959 / def 0.947 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.040 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Krasnodar xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 36% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.04x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.54
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.32
1.16
FC Krasnodar xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.16 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, CSKA Moscow have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.78 for FC Krasnodar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, CSKA Moscow have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.89 scored and 1.00 conceded. FC Krasnodar's attacking output running into CSKA Moscow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; FC Krasnodar in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or FC Krasnodar away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.25 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
CSKA Moscow
3
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 3, FC Krasnodar have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 25%, FC Krasnodar 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (CSKA Moscow) and 50% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 75% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 50% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at CSKA Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar finished level at 0-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.16 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 36%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, FC Krasnodar 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.78 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.