CSKA Moscow 3-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 1.10 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: CSKA Moscow 4W, Akhmat 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Akhmat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 62% versus Akhmat 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 54% | Akhmat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.67 xG and Akhmat 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.240 / defence 0.784 | Akhmat attack 0.821 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.267. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 CSKA Moscow games / 39 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 56% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 16%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Akhmat 6.25. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 50% | Akhmat 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 56% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.67 / Akhmat 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.240 / def 0.784 | Akhmat attack 0.821 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Akhmat xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow 3 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 56% chance of winning, Akhmat a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (6 meetings): CSKA Moscow 4W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 2W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Akhmat (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.82x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.60
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.48
0.81
Akhmat xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
32.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.81 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 16W 14D 9L from 39 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 18L across 39 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.03 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 16W 14D 9L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.84 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.00 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Akhmat in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Akhmat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 58%, Akhmat 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (CSKA Moscow) and 37% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Akhmat in 32%; Akhmat in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 37% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 37% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Akhmat 3-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.67 xG and Akhmat 0.81 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akhmat landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.24 / defence 0.78 against Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 56% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 16%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 54%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Akhmat's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.