CSKA Moscow 1-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 0.80 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both CSKA Moscow and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 62% and Akhmat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 58% | Akhmat 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 2.08 xG and Akhmat 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.328 / defence 0.974 | Akhmat attack 0.818 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.172. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 CSKA Moscow games / 53 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 63% | Draw 22% | Akhmat 15%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Akhmat 6.67. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 70% | Akhmat 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 63% | Draw 22% | Akhmat 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG CSKA Moscow 2.08 / Akhmat 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.328 / def 0.974 | Akhmat attack 0.818 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Akhmat xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 63% chance of winning, Akhmat a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): CSKA Moscow 4W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.82x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.49
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
3.01
0.94
Akhmat xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
53.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.94 for Akhmat, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 26W 17D 10L from 53 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 23L across 53 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 18W 6D 2L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.36 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Akhmat in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 17D 10L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.31 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.31 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Akhmat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Akhmat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 62%, Akhmat 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for CSKA Moscow and 65% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of CSKA Moscow's games and 65% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 65% of Akhmat's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat CSKA Moscow 1-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 2.08 xG and Akhmat 0.94 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Akhmat outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.33 / defence 0.97 against Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 63% | Draw 22% | Akhmat 15%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 58%, Akhmat 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.