Baltika vs Akhmat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Akhmat travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Rostec Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostec Arena this season.
Akhmat — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Akhmat have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Baltika) versus 1.00 (Akhmat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baltika register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Baltika have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Akhmat have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Baltika a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 42% versus Akhmat 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 34% | Akhmat 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.25 xG and Akhmat 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.820 / defence 0.938 | Akhmat attack 0.774 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.305. Data: 41 Baltika games / 41 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 40% | Draw 36% | Akhmat 24%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Akhmat 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 60% | Akhmat 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 40% | Draw 36% | Akhmat 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Baltika 1.25 / Akhmat 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.820 / def 0.938 | Akhmat attack 0.774 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Baltika (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Akhmat xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Akhmat kick off?
Baltika vs Akhmat is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Rostec Arena.
Where is Baltika vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akhmat part of?
Baltika vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 40% chance of winning, Akhmat a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Baltika and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): Baltika 3W | Draws 2 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are Baltika and Akhmat in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.82x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
40%
2.52
36%
2.79
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.20
0.95
Akhmat xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Baltika and 0.95 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Baltika have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 17D 10L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat's form line: 11W 15D 15L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.44 PPG, Akhmat on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 1W 10D 10L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baltika are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.22 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 14W 17D 10L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akhmat away?
Baltika's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.48 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Akhmat in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baltika's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Baltika
2
Draws
0
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akhmat?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 3, Akhmat have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Akhmat?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 43%, Akhmat 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 38% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 29% of games; Akhmat in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Baltika's recent matches and 62% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 38% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akhmat tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.