Arsenal Tula 0-3 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal Tula vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Arsenal plays host to Arsenal Tula versus Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 30 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal Tula have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Premier League outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arsenal Tula have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Premier League outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin arrive in superior form — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 0.81 xG and Rubin 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.985 / defence 1.150 | Rubin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.372. Data: 1 Arsenal Tula games / 1 Rubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 23% | Draw 28% | Rubin 49%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Rubin 2.04. Rubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 23% | Draw 28% | Rubin 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Arsenal Tula 0.81 / Rubin 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.985 / def 1.150 | Rubin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Rubin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Rubin xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs Rubin kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs Rubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs Rubin?
Arsenal Tula 0 - 3 Rubin.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs Rubin part of?
Arsenal Tula vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 23% chance of winning, Rubin a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Arsenal Tula and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Rubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and Rubin in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Rubin (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arsenal Tula's attack rating (0.98) and Rubin's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.85x) against Arsenal Tula's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
23%
4.44
28%
3.55
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.15
1.34
Rubin xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.34 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arsenal Tula come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Arsenal Tula — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rubin in 0%.
Defensively: Rubin in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Early Season
Rubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and Rubin in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rubin have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Arsenal Tula or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal Tula have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rubin in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arsenal Tula
0
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Rubin?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 0, Rubin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Rubin 1-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Arsenal Tula's recent matches and 0% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal Tula vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Arsenal Tula's recent games and 0% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal Tula and Rubin tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rubin in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rubin run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Arsenal Tula 0-3 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 0.81 xG and Rubin 1.34 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal Tula fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rubin outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Rubin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 23% | Draw 28% | Rubin 49%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 100%, Rubin 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal Tula managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.