Akhmat 1-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ural travel to Akhmat Arena to take on Akhmat. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 2W 0D 3L at Akhmat Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ural — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ural have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 0.90 PPG, Ural 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ural in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 64% versus Ural 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 64% | Ural 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.10 xG and Ural 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.794 / defence 1.223 | Ural attack 0.593 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.176. Akhmat's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ural bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Akhmat games / 11 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 41% | Draw 32% | Ural 28%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Ural 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Ural 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 41% | Draw 32% | Ural 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Akhmat 1.10 / Ural 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.794 / def 1.223 | Ural attack 0.593 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ural xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Ural kick off?
Akhmat vs Ural kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Ural?
Akhmat 1 - 0 Ural.
Where is Akhmat vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Ural part of?
Akhmat vs Ural is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 41% chance of winning, Ural a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Akhmat and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akhmat and Ural in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.15
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Akhmat xG
Total xG
1.95
0.85
Ural xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.85 for Ural, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat's recent record stands at 4W 0D 7L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akhmat on 1.09 PPG, Ural on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ural's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Ural in 18%.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Ural in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Ural have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Ural away?
Akhmat's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.50 PPG; Ural away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Akhmat's record when hosting Ural specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Akhmat
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Ural?
From 8 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 6, Ural have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Akhmat 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Ural?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Akhmat 50% BTTS, Ural 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 25% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Akhmat have failed to score in 50% of games; Ural in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Akhmat's recent matches and 0% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 25% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Ural tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ural in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out Ural 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Ural 1-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.10 xG and Ural 0.85 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ural landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Ural attack 0.59 / defence 1.25, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 41% | Draw 32% | Ural 28%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 64%, Ural 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.09 PPG, Ural 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.