Akhmat 1-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akhmat at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Krylia Sovetov make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Akhmat Arena, Akhmat have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Akhmat, 1.40 for Krylia Sovetov — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Akhmat 1W, Krylia Sovetov 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Akhmat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Akhmat half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 54% versus Krylia Sovetov 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 54% | Krylia Sovetov 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.53 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.022 / defence 1.191 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.785 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.242. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Akhmat games / 28 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 46% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 29%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Krylia Sovetov 3.45. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 50% | Krylia Sovetov 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 46% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Akhmat 1.53 / Krylia Sovetov 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.022 / def 1.191 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.785 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Krylia Sovetov xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat 1 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 46% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 1W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.79x) against Akhmat's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.94
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.69
1.16
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.16 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 12W 2D 14L from 28 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 11L across 28 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Akhmat against 1.46 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 8W 0D 6L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 5W 2D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 12W 2D 14L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 12W 5D 11L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.71 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 57%, Krylia Sovetov 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Akhmat) and 50% (Krylia Sovetov).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Akhmat's games and 57% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Akhmat's recent games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.53 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.16 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 46% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 29%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.36 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.