Vizela 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Do Vizela, Vizela have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, GIL Vicente are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vizela, 0 for GIL Vicente and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 57% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 48% | GIL Vicente 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.87 xG and GIL Vicente 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.821 / defence 1.242 | GIL Vicente attack 0.955 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.372. Data: 21 Vizela games / 21 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 19% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 54%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 1.85. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 50% | GIL Vicente 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 19% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Vizela 0.87 / GIL Vicente 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.821 / def 1.242 | GIL Vicente attack 0.955 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.63
GIL Vicente xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Vizela 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Vizela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 19% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vizela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Vizela and GIL Vicente in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.95x) against Vizela's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
19%
5.29
27%
3.68
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.50
1.63
GIL Vicente xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
4%
26.90
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Vizela and 1.63 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 8D 8L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vizela's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.52 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 5W 8D 8L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.00 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 50%, GIL Vicente 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Vizela and 50% for GIL Vicente.
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Vizela's games and 60% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vizela's recent games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.87 xG and GIL Vicente 1.63 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against GIL Vicente attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 19% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 54%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 48%, GIL Vicente 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.