Vizela 1-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Estoril meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vizela have posted 1W 3D 1L at Estádio Do Vizela — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estoril have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Estoril are 1.00 PPG clear of Vizela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vizela have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Estoril in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vizela 60% and Estoril 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vizela 40% | Estoril 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.77 xG and Estoril 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.817 / defence 1.069 | Estoril attack 1.079 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.196. Data: 10 Vizela games / 10 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 17% | Draw 35% | Estoril 48%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | Estoril 2.08. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 80% | Estoril 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 17% | Draw 35% | Estoril 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Vizela 0.77 / Estoril 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.817 / def 1.069 | Estoril attack 1.079 / def 0.973 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Estoril (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Estoril xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Estoril kick off?
Vizela vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Vizela 1 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Vizela vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Estoril part of?
Vizela vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 17% chance of winning, Estoril a 48% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vizela and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Estoril in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Estoril (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (1.08x) against Vizela's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
17%
5.83
35%
2.84
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.15
1.38
Estoril xG
5.83
17%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
23.14
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 16.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Vizela and 1.38 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela's recent record stands at 1W 6D 3L from 10 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 1L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estoril's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.90 PPG overall record — Estoril travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.50 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Estoril in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Estoril in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Estoril have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.20 PPG; Estoril away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Vizela or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Estoril in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 0-3 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Estoril have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Vizela 3-3 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Estoril?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Vizela, 60% for Estoril — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Vizela and 40% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Estoril in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Vizela's games and 60% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vizela's recent games and 40% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Estoril tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Estoril in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Estoril share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 11, as Vizela and Estoril drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.77 xG and Estoril 1.38 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Estoril attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 17% | Draw 35% | Estoril 48%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 40%, Estoril 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.