Tondela 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tondela vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tondela host SC Braga at Estádio João Cardoso in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 20:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tondela stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela at Estádio João Cardoso this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tondela, 1 for SC Braga and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tondela in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 64% versus SC Braga 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 73% | SC Braga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.22 xG and SC Braga 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.990 / defence 1.527 | SC Braga attack 1.050 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.365. Data: 22 Tondela games / 22 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 20% | Draw 21% | SC Braga 59%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | SC Braga 1.69. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 70% | SC Braga 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 20% | Draw 21% | SC Braga 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Tondela 1.22 / SC Braga 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.990 / def 1.527 | SC Braga attack 1.050 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
2.19
SC Braga xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs SC Braga kick off?
Tondela vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:45 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs SC Braga?
Tondela 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Tondela vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs SC Braga part of?
Tondela vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 20% chance of winning, SC Braga a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Tondela and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Tondela 0W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are Tondela and SC Braga in?
Tondela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tondela's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Tondela's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
20%
4.95
21%
4.80
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Tondela xG
Total xG
3.41
2.19
SC Braga xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
11%
8.92
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
2%
44.15
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Tondela and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tondela and 2.19 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tondela's recent record stands at 6W 2D 14L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 5L across 22 games — 1.86 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tondela heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tondela have managed 3W 0D 7L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tondela are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.77 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Braga in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 12W 5D 5L in their last 22 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.90 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Tondela or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tondela have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, SC Braga in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when SC Braga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tondela's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Tondela
0
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and SC Braga?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, SC Braga have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Tondela 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 70%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Tondela and 50% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 40%; Tondela have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tondela's games and 50% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tondela vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Tondela's matches and 50% of SC Braga's.
Do Tondela and SC Braga tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Tondela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.22 xG and SC Braga 2.19 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.99 / defence 1.53 against SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 20% | Draw 21% | SC Braga 59%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 73%, SC Braga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.