SC Braga 1-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Braga at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Chaves encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio Municipal de Braga plays host to SC Braga versus Chaves in Primeira Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off: Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Braga have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, SC Braga have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chaves (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Chaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in SC Braga's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Braga, 1 for Chaves and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended SC Braga 4–2 Chaves — a SC Braga win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

SC Braga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Chaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 54% versus Chaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 64% | Chaves 48%). Note also that Chaves surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while SC Braga recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 2.53 xG and Chaves 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.225 / defence 0.891 | Chaves attack 0.787 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.319. Chaves's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Braga's projected output up. Chaves's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from SC Braga's last 52 games and Chaves's last 52.

Result probabilities: SC Braga 72% | Draw 16% | Chaves 12%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.38 | Draw 6.17 | Chaves 8.64. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (72%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Braga's last 10 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Braga 80% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 30% (last 10 away games).

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