Santa Clara 2-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Santa Clara welcome Arouca to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's home record at Estádio de São Miguel: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arouca stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arouca have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Arouca are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 50% versus Arouca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 58% | Arouca 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.89 xG and Arouca 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.688 / defence 1.341 | Arouca attack 0.652 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.377. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Santa Clara games / 12 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 23% | Draw 37% | Arouca 39%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 4.35 | Draw 2.70 | Arouca 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 33% | Arouca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 23% | Draw 37% | Arouca 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Santa Clara 0.89 / Arouca 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.688 / def 1.341 | Arouca attack 0.652 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Arouca (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Arouca xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Arouca kick off?
Santa Clara vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Santa Clara 2 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Santa Clara vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Arouca part of?
Santa Clara vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 23% chance of winning, Arouca a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Santa Clara and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Arouca in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Arouca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (0.69) and Arouca's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
23%
4.28
37%
2.67
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.10
1.20
Arouca xG
4.28
23%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.20 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santa Clara heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santa Clara have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arouca's season.
The Goals Picture
Santa Clara are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Arouca in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Arouca away?
Santa Clara's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 0.83 PPG; Arouca away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Arouca runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
3
Draws
3
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Arouca?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Arouca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arouca 2-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 33%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Santa Clara) and 50% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 50% of games; Arouca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 50% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Arouca tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arouca in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Arouca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.89 xG and Arouca 1.20 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Arouca attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 23% | Draw 37% | Arouca 39%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 58%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arouca arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.