Pacos Ferreira 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio da Capital do Móvel plays host to Pacos Ferreira versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 10 December 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacos Ferreira have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIL Vicente (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.10 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus GIL Vicente 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 38% | GIL Vicente 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.01 xG and GIL Vicente 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.746 / defence 1.198 | GIL Vicente attack 0.881 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.333. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Pacos Ferreira games / 13 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 23% | Draw 34% | GIL Vicente 42%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | GIL Vicente 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 43% | GIL Vicente 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 23% | Draw 34% | GIL Vicente 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.01 / GIL Vicente 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.746 / def 1.198 | GIL Vicente attack 0.881 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.41
GIL Vicente xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 23% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.75x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.88x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
23%
4.29
34%
2.90
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.42
1.41
GIL Vicente xG
4.29
23%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.41 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.50 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 2-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 50%, GIL Vicente 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pacos Ferreira) and 50% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 67% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Pacos Ferreira 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Pacos Ferreira 0-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.01 xG and GIL Vicente 1.41 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against GIL Vicente attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 23% | Draw 34% | GIL Vicente 42%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 38%, GIL Vicente 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.