Moreirense 4-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vizela at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Moreirense welcome Vizela to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 3W 0D 7L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vizela have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Moreirense) versus 1.00 (Vizela). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Moreirense, 0 for Vizela and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Moreirense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vizela in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 48% versus Vizela 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 42% | Vizela 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.25 xG and Vizela 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.770 / defence 1.174 | Vizela attack 0.951 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.170. Moreirense's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Moreirense games / 33 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Vizela 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vizela are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 20% | Vizela 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Moreirense 1.25 / Vizela 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.770 / def 1.174 | Vizela attack 0.951 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Vizela (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Vizela xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Vizela kick off?
Moreirense vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Vizela?
Moreirense 4 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Moreirense vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Vizela part of?
Moreirense vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 34% chance of winning, Vizela a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Moreirense and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Vizela?
Record (1 meetings): Moreirense 1W | Draws 0 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Moreirense and Vizela in?
Moreirense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.77x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.52
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.55
1.31
Vizela xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.31 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Moreirense have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 6W 8D 19L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vizela's form line: 7W 12D 14L from 33 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 0.79 PPG, Vizela on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Moreirense have posted 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 5D 8L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Current Season
Vizela
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Vizela in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 6W 8D 19L in their last 33 games (0.79 PPG), while Vizela have gone 7W 12D 14L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Vizela away?
Moreirense's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 0.94 PPG; Vizela away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Moreirense won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Moreirense
1
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, Vizela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Moreirense 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Vizela?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 50%, Vizela 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Moreirense) and 69% (Vizela). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Moreirense have failed to score in 38% of games; Vizela in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Moreirense's games and 69% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Moreirense's matches and 69% of Vizela's.
Do Moreirense and Vizela tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vizela in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Moreirense run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Vizela 4-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.25 xG and Vizela 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Vizela attack 0.95 / defence 1.51, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 42%, Vizela 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 0.79 PPG, Vizela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.