Maritimo 1-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 43%, yet in-form Vizela provide a compelling counter-argument — this Maritimo vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Maritimo and Vizela meet at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 May 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Maritimo at Estádio dos Barreiros this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Maritimo are significantly better at Estádio dos Barreiros than their overall form suggests.
Vizela (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Vizela's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Vizela arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Maritimo lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Vizela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 54% versus Vizela 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 50% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.45 xG and Vizela 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 1.121 / defence 1.243 | Vizela attack 0.873 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.087. Data: 66 Maritimo games / 66 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 43% | Draw 26% | Vizela 31%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Vizela 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vizela (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 60% | Vizela 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 43% | Draw 26% | Vizela 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Maritimo 1.45 / Vizela 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 1.121 / def 1.243 | Vizela attack 0.873 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Vizela xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Vizela kick off?
Maritimo vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Vizela?
Maritimo 1 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Maritimo vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Vizela part of?
Maritimo vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 43% chance of winning, Vizela a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Maritimo and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Vizela?
Record (3 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 1 | Vizela 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Vizela in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 1.12x the league average against Vizela's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.87x) against Maritimo's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.85
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.63
1.18
Vizela xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.18 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo's recent record stands at 15W 16D 35L from 66 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 29L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Maritimo against 1.11 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 9W 9D 15L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.06 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Current Season
Vizela
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Vizela in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 15W 16D 35L in their last 66 games (0.92 PPG), while Vizela have gone 18W 19D 29L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Vizela away?
Maritimo's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.09 PPG; Vizela away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 3-0 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Maritimo
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 2, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Maritimo 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Vizela?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 52%, Vizela 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Maritimo) and 54% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Vizela in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Maritimo's recent matches and 54% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Maritimo's recent games and 54% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Vizela tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vizela in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Maritimo edge out Vizela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Vizela 1-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.45 xG and Vizela 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vizela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 1.12 / defence 1.24 against Vizela attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 43% | Draw 26% | Vizela 31%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 50%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Vizela's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.92 PPG, Vizela 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.