Maritimo 0-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 20 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estádio dos Barreiros this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Famalicao (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Maritimo's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Maritimo 0W, Famalicao 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 59% versus Famalicao 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 50% | Famalicao 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.61 xG and Famalicao 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.948 / defence 0.924 | Famalicao attack 0.913 / defence 1.553. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.387. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.553 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Maritimo games / 22 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 47% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 26%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 3.85. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 50% | Famalicao 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 47% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Maritimo 1.61 / Famalicao 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.948 / def 0.924 | Famalicao attack 0.913 / def 1.553 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Famalicao xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Famalicao kick off?
Maritimo vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Famalicao?
Maritimo 0 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Maritimo vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Famalicao part of?
Maritimo vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 47% chance of winning, Famalicao a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Maritimo and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Famalicao?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Maritimo and Famalicao in?
Maritimo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Maritimo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.91x) against Maritimo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.71
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.79
1.17
Famalicao xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.17 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Maritimo have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 7W 7D 8L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Maritimo against 0.91 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.27 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Famalicao away?
Maritimo's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.40 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Famalicao in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
2
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Famalicao have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 50%, Famalicao 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Maritimo) and 80% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Maritimo have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Maritimo's games and 70% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Maritimo's matches and 80% of Famalicao's.
Do Maritimo and Famalicao tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat Maritimo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Maritimo 0-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.61 xG and Famalicao 1.17 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Maritimo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Famalicao attack 0.91 / defence 1.55, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 47% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 26%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 50%, Famalicao 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Famalicao's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.27 PPG, Famalicao 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.