Maritimo 1-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio dos Barreiros, Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Estoril (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Maritimo against 1.20 for Estoril. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Maritimo 0W, Estoril 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 53% versus Estoril 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 45% | Estoril 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.09 xG and Estoril 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.781 / defence 0.939 | Estoril attack 0.888 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 0.988. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Maritimo games / 49 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 41% | Draw 31% | Estoril 27%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Estoril 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Estoril 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 41% | Draw 31% | Estoril 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Maritimo 1.09 / Estoril 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.781 / def 0.939 | Estoril attack 0.888 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.362 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Estoril xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Estoril kick off?
Maritimo vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Estoril?
Maritimo 1 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Maritimo vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Estoril part of?
Maritimo vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 41% chance of winning, Estoril a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Maritimo and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Estoril in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.78x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.89x) against Maritimo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.19
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Maritimo xG
Total xG
1.91
0.82
Estoril xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.82 for Estoril, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo come into this having played 49 games, going 11W 15D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (14W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Maritimo against 1.18 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Maritimo's home form reads 5W 8D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Estoril in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 11W 15D 23L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Estoril have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.00 PPG; Estoril away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Estoril in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Estoril have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Estoril 3-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 48%, Estoril 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Maritimo and 30% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Estoril in 30%; Maritimo have failed to score in 35% of games; Estoril in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Maritimo's recent matches and 39% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Maritimo's recent games and 30% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Estoril tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Estoril in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Maritimo edge out Estoril 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Estoril 1-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.09 xG and Estoril 0.82 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estoril landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.78 / defence 0.94 against Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 41% | Draw 31% | Estoril 27%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 45%, Estoril 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.98 PPG, Estoril 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.