Guimaraes 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Guimaraes take on Maritimo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques to face Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guimaraes have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 3L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for Guimaraes, 0.88 for Maritimo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Guimaraes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 38% versus Maritimo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 50% | Maritimo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.11 xG and Maritimo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 0.986 / defence 1.084 | Maritimo attack 0.693 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.218. Data: 8 Guimaraes games / 8 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 36% | Draw 39% | Maritimo 26%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 2.78 | Draw 2.56 | Maritimo 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 25% | Maritimo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 36% | Draw 39% | Maritimo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Guimaraes 1.11 / Maritimo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 0.986 / def 1.084 | Maritimo attack 0.693 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Maritimo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Maritimo kick off?
Guimaraes vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Guimaraes 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Guimaraes vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Maritimo part of?
Guimaraes vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 36% chance of winning, Maritimo a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guimaraes and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guimaraes and Maritimo in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guimaraes's attack rating (0.99) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.69x) against Guimaraes's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
39%
2.60
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
2.02
0.92
Maritimo xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Guimaraes and 0.92 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guimaraes's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 3L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Guimaraes against 0.88 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guimaraes have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guimaraes are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.75 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Guimaraes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Maritimo away?
Guimaraes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 1.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guimaraes or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guimaraes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Maritimo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guimaraes have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guimaraes have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Guimaraes
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
Guimaraes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guimaraes tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guimaraes 25%, Maritimo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guimaraes) and 50% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Guimaraes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Guimaraes have failed to score in 50% of games; Maritimo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Guimaraes's recent matches and 50% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guimaraes vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guimaraes's recent games and 50% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guimaraes and Maritimo tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.11 xG and Maritimo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Maritimo attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 36% | Draw 39% | Maritimo 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Guimaraes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 50%, Maritimo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.25 PPG, Maritimo 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.