Vitória SC 2-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vitória SC face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Vitória SC welcome Benfica to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vitória SC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benfica — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Vitória SC.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Benfica trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 41% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 50% | Benfica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.27 xG and Benfica 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.288 / defence 0.856 | Benfica attack 1.374 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.201. Vitória SC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Vitória SC games / 54 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 34% | Draw 26% | Benfica 40%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 60% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 34% | Draw 26% | Benfica 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Vitória SC 1.27 / Benfica 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.288 / def 0.856 | Benfica attack 1.374 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Benfica (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Benfica kick off?
Vitória SC vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Vitória SC 2 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Vitória SC vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Benfica part of?
Vitória SC vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 34% chance of winning, Benfica a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vitória SC and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Record (5 meetings): Vitória SC 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.84
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.41
Benfica xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.41 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 28W 8D 18L from 54 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 44W 6D 4L across 54 games — 2.56 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitória SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 18W 3D 6L from 27 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Vitória SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benfica's away record stands at 21W 3D 3L across 27 trips, a 2.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Benfica in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 28W 8D 18L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Benfica have gone 44W 6D 4L in their last 54 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 2.11 PPG; Benfica away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Benfica in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitória SC's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Vitória SC
2
Draws
8
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 0, Benfica have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vitória SC 37% BTTS, Benfica 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vitória SC) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Benfica in 63%; Vitória SC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 30% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vitória SC's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Benfica tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Benfica in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitória SC and Benfica share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 21, as Vitória SC and Benfica drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.27 xG and Benfica 1.41 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against Benfica attack 1.37 / defence 0.65, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 34% | Draw 26% | Benfica 40%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 50%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.