GIL Vicente 0-0 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as GIL Vicente face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Sporting CP meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
GIL Vicente have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIL Vicente's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sporting CP's record over their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Sporting CP have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sporting CP have the stronger record — 5 wins to GIL Vicente's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2024, ended GIL Vicente 0–4 Sporting CP — a Sporting CP win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sporting CP have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 52% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (GIL Vicente 54% | Sporting CP 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIL Vicente surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Sporting CP have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.34 xG and Sporting CP 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.115 / defence 1.043 | Sporting CP attack 1.731 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.133. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.731, which lifts their away xG to 2.04. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 48 games and Sporting CP's last 48.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 25% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 54%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 4.03 | Draw 4.69 | Sporting CP 1.86. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.34 / 2.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 25% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.34 / Sporting CP 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.115 / def 1.043 | Sporting CP attack 1.731 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Sporting CP xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 Sporting CP.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP part of?
GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 25% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both GIL Vicente and Sporting CP will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.11) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.73x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 48 games and Sporting CP's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
25%
4.03
21%
4.69
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
3.38
2.04
Sporting CP xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
13%
7.73
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
3%
31.14
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 2.04 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 13W 13D 22L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 41W 3D 4L across 48 games — 2.62 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 9W 9D 5L from their last 23 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 17W 3D 3L across their last 23 away games, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.90 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Sporting CP (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 41W 3D 4L in their last 48 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.57 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.35 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won GIL Vicente 0-4 Sporting CP on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
7
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Sporting CP?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 0, Sporting CP have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Sporting CP last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Sporting CP 3-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 56%, Sporting CP 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for GIL Vicente and 78% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sporting CP in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Sporting CP matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 52% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of GIL Vicente's matches and 78% of Sporting CP's.
Do GIL Vicente and Sporting CP matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 87% of Sporting CP's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Sporting CP finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.34 xG and Sporting CP 2.04 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sporting CP landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Sporting CP attack 1.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 25% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 54%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 54%, Sporting CP 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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