GIL Vicente 1-2 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 39%, yet in-form Portimonense provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 4 November 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Portimonense (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Portimonense are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Portimonense 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 51% | Portimonense 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.97 xG and Portimonense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.693 / defence 0.951 | Portimonense attack 0.778 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.064. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 GIL Vicente games / 45 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 33% | Portimonense 28%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Portimonense 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Portimonense's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portimonense (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Portimonense 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 33% | Portimonense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG GIL Vicente 0.97 / Portimonense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.693 / def 0.951 | Portimonense attack 0.778 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Portimonense xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Portimonense kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Portimonense kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 Portimonense.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense part of?
GIL Vicente vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 39% chance of winning, Portimonense a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both GIL Vicente and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 2W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Portimonense in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Portimonense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.69) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.78x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.02
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.76
0.79
Portimonense xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 13.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.79 for Portimonense, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 15W 15D 15L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 21L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.20 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 8W 4D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.89 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Portimonense in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.18 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.27 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Portimonense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 4, Portimonense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Portimonense 0-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 41% (GIL Vicente) and 23% (Portimonense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (GIL Vicente) and 32% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Portimonense in 36%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 36% of games; Portimonense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 23% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 32% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Portimonense tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portimonense defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.97 xG and Portimonense 0.79 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Portimonense outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Portimonense attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 33% | Portimonense 28%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, Portimonense 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.33 PPG, Portimonense 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.