FC Porto 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Porto (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Porto face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Dragão plays host to FC Porto versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Porto have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Porto at Estádio Do Dragão this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Do Dragão.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Boavista have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Porto's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Boavista's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, FC Porto are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Porto and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
FC Porto goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 48% versus Boavista 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 54% | Boavista 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 2.37 xG and Boavista 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.349 / defence 0.876 | Boavista attack 0.759 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.260. FC Porto carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 FC Porto games / 66 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Porto 71% | Draw 17% | Boavista 11%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Boavista 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Porto 40% | Boavista 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 71% | Draw 17% | Boavista 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Porto 2.37 / Boavista 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.349 / def 0.876 | Boavista attack 0.759 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Boavista xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Boavista kick off?
FC Porto vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Boavista?
FC Porto 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is FC Porto vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Boavista part of?
FC Porto vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 71% chance of winning, Boavista a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Porto and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Boavista?
Record (5 meetings): FC Porto 4W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are FC Porto and Boavista in?
FC Porto (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Porto's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.76x) against FC Porto's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.85
11%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
FC Porto xG
Total xG
3.20
0.84
Boavista xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
8.70
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
92.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.84 for Boavista, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Boavista?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Porto come into this having played 66 games, going 47W 10D 9L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.14 PPG from 66 outings (19W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Porto's home form reads 25W 4D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.79 points per game from 33 outings (7W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Porto are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 64%.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Current Season
Boavista
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Boavista in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 47W 10D 9L in their last 66 games (2.29 PPG), while Boavista have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Boavista away?
FC Porto's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.39 PPG; Boavista away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Boavista in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Porto go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 4-0 on 28 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Porto have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
FC Porto
1
Draws
0
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 7, Boavista have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Boavista 1-2 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Boavista?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 48%, Boavista 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC Porto and 58% for Boavista. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Boavista in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Porto's recent matches and 61% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Porto vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC Porto's matches and 58% of Boavista's.
Do FC Porto and Boavista tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Boavista in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.37 xG and Boavista 0.84 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.35 / defence 0.88 against Boavista attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 71% | Draw 17% | Boavista 11%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 54%, Boavista 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.