FC Porto 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Porto at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Porto vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Do Dragão to take on FC Porto. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022, 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, FC Porto have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Porto at Estádio Do Dragão this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Do Dragão.
Benfica — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Porto 2.50 PPG, Benfica 2.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 2, Benfica 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–0 with FC Porto winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Porto trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 49% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 63% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 1.45 xG and Benfica 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.744 / defence 0.751 | Benfica attack 1.130 / defence 0.616. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.095. FC Porto carry an above-average attack strength of 1.744 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.616 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Porto's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 FC Porto games / 43 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Porto 49% | Draw 27% | Benfica 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Benfica 4.17. FC Porto hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Porto offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: FC Porto 40% | Benfica 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 49% | Draw 27% | Benfica 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Porto 1.45 / Benfica 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.744 / def 0.751 | Benfica attack 1.130 / def 0.616 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Benfica xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Benfica kick off?
FC Porto vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is FC Porto vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Benfica part of?
FC Porto vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 49% chance of winning, Benfica a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Porto and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): FC Porto 2W | Draws 0 | Benfica 0W.
What form are FC Porto and Benfica in?
FC Porto (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 1.74x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus FC Porto's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.75
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Porto xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Benfica xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.93 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Porto come into this having played 43 games, going 36W 5D 2L for 2.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.30 PPG from 43 outings (31W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Porto on 2.63 PPG, Benfica on 2.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Porto's home form reads 19W 2D 0L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.43 points per game from 21 outings (16W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Porto are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.35 scored and 0.81 conceded. FC Porto's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Benfica in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Benfica in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 36W 5D 2L in their last 43 games (2.63 PPG), while Benfica have gone 31W 6D 6L in their last 43 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Benfica away?
FC Porto's home record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.81 PPG; Benfica away: 2.43 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Benfica in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2024, when FC Porto won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Porto's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Porto
2
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 4, Benfica have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Benfica 2-2 FC Porto.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 52%, Benfica 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for FC Porto and 52% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Benfica in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Porto's recent matches and 43% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Porto vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of FC Porto's matches and 52% of Benfica's.
Do FC Porto and Benfica tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Benfica in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benfica defy the odds to beat FC Porto 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat FC Porto 0-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.45 xG and Benfica 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Porto fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.74 / defence 0.75 against Benfica attack 1.13 / defence 0.62, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 49% | Draw 27% | Benfica 24%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Benfica win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 63%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Porto 2.63 PPG, Benfica 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.