Famalicao 3-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Famalicao welcome SC Braga to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SC Braga's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Famalicao, 0 for SC Braga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 58% versus SC Braga 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 58% | SC Braga 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.95 xG and SC Braga 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.017 / defence 1.196 | SC Braga attack 0.872 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.151. Data: 33 Famalicao games / 33 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 41%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | SC Braga 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | SC Braga 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Famalicao 0.95 / SC Braga 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.017 / def 1.196 | SC Braga attack 0.872 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SC Braga xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs SC Braga kick off?
Famalicao vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Famalicao 3 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Famalicao vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs SC Braga part of?
Famalicao vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, SC Braga a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Famalicao and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 0W.
What form are Famalicao and SC Braga in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (1.02) and SC Braga's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
28%
3.53
31%
3.25
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.15
1.20
SC Braga xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.20 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 8W 12D 13L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
SC Braga's form line: 19W 8D 6L from 33 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Venue Form
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L).
On the road, SC Braga have gone 9W 4D 3L from 16 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Famalicao are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.52 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 8W 12D 13L in their last 33 games (1.09 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 19W 8D 6L in their last 33 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Famalicao or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Braga in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
4
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, SC Braga have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SC Braga 2-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 56%, SC Braga 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Famalicao) and 38% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SC Braga in 50%; Famalicao have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Famalicao's recent matches and 44% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Famalicao's recent games and 38% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and SC Braga tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat SC Braga 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat SC Braga 3-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.95 xG and SC Braga 1.20 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against SC Braga attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 41%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 58%, SC Braga 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SC Braga's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.