Estrela 0-1 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 42%, yet in-form Estrela provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estrela vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Estrela welcome Farense to Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estrela stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estrela's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Farense — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Farense's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Estrela carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 2 for Farense and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2024, ended Estrela 0–1 Farense — a Farense win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estrela in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Farense in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 45% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 42% | Farense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.22 xG and Farense 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.860 / defence 1.172 | Farense attack 1.034 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.175. Data: built from Estrela's last 62 games and Farense's last 62.
Result probabilities: Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Farense 42%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.09 | Draw 3.85 | Farense 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estrela (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estrela 50% (last 10 home games) | Farense 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Farense 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Estrela 1.22 / Farense 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.860 / def 1.172 | Farense attack 1.034 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Farense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Farense xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estrela vs Farense FAQs
What time does Estrela vs Farense kick off?
Estrela vs Farense kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Farense?
Estrela 0 - 1 Farense.
Where is Estrela vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Farense part of?
Estrela vs Farense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 32% chance of winning, Farense a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estrela and Farense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estrela vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estrela's attack rating (0.86) and Farense's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estrela's last 62 games and Farense's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
32%
3.09
26%
3.85
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.65
1.42
Farense xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estrela vs Farense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estrela and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Estrela and 1.42 for Farense, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 13W 20D 29L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Farense's form line: 13W 16D 33L from 62 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estrela on 0.95 PPG, Farense on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 7D 14L).
On the road, Farense have gone 5W 10D 16L from their last 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
Estrela (Home) vs Farense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estrela
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
❓ Estrela vs Farense Form FAQs
What form are Estrela and Farense in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 13W 20D 29L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Farense have gone 13W 16D 33L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Farense away?
Estrela's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.19 PPG; Farense away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Farense have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when Farense won Estrela 0-3 Farense.
Estrela's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estrela
1
Draws
3
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Estrela vs Farense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Farense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Estrela have won 0, Farense have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estrela and Farense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2025: Estrela 0-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Farense?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 55%, Farense 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Estrela) and 52% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 29% of games; Farense in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estrela vs Farense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estrela and Farense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Estrela's games and 61% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Estrela and Farense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Estrela's recent games and 52% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Farense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Estrela's recent matches and 68% of Farense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Farense edge out Estrela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.22 xG and Farense 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Farense attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Farense 42%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 42%, Farense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Farense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.95 PPG, Farense 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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