Estoril 2-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Estoril take on GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Estoril. A 0.86 PPG lead over GIL Vicente (2.00 vs 1.14) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus GIL Vicente 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 43% | GIL Vicente 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.90 xG and GIL Vicente 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.817 / defence 1.021 | GIL Vicente attack 0.688 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.180. Data: 7 Estoril games / 7 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 31% | Draw 42% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.23 | Draw 2.38 | GIL Vicente 3.70. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 33% | GIL Vicente 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 31% | Draw 42% | GIL Vicente 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Estoril 0.90 / GIL Vicente 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.817 / def 1.021 | GIL Vicente attack 0.688 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.83
GIL Vicente xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Estoril 2 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estoril vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 31% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 27% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Estoril and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.82) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.69x) against Estoril's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
42%
2.40
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Estoril xG
Total xG
1.73
0.83
GIL Vicente xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Estoril and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Estoril and 0.83 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or GIL Vicente away?
Estoril's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.33 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
3
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Estoril) and 33% (GIL Vicente) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Estoril and 0% for GIL Vicente.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 33%; Estoril have failed to score in 67% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Estoril's recent matches and 33% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Estoril's recent games and 0% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Estoril and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.90 xG and GIL Vicente 0.83 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIL Vicente outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against GIL Vicente attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 31% | Draw 42% | GIL Vicente 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 43%, GIL Vicente 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.