Chaves 1-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Vizela at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.10 (Vizela). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Vizela trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 25% versus Vizela 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 25% | Vizela 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 0.99 xG and Vizela 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.718 / defence 1.120 | Vizela attack 1.007 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.112. Chaves's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Chaves games / 36 Vizela games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chaves 29% | Draw 28% | Vizela 42%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Vizela 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 25% | Vizela 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 29% | Draw 28% | Vizela 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Chaves 0.99 / Vizela 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.718 / def 1.120 | Vizela attack 1.007 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Vizela (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vizela xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Vizela kick off?
Chaves vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Vizela?
Chaves 1 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Chaves vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Vizela part of?
Chaves vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 29% chance of winning, Vizela a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chaves and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Vizela in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-L-W. Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.51
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.24
1.25
Vizela xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chaves and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Chaves and 1.25 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vizela's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chaves are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vizela.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chaves have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Vizela in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chaves's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
2
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, Vizela have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when Vizela 0-1 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Vizela?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vizela tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 25%, Vizela 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Chaves and 25% for Vizela.
On the defensive side: Chaves have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Chaves's recent matches and 50% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chaves's recent games and 25% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Vizela tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vizela in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves and Vizela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves and Vizela finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 0.99 xG and Vizela 1.25 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Vizela attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 29% | Draw 28% | Vizela 42%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 25%, Vizela 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.